De Egyptische econoom Tarek Osman (1975) schreef in Egypt on the brink
over de geschiedenis van Egypte vanaf Nasser in 1952 tot na Mubarak. Hij
analyseert de ontwikkeling van het Arabisch nationalisme en de radicale
islam en de gespannen relatie tussen kopten en moslims. In deze bloedstollende tijden
van verandering luister ik met rode oortjes naar zo’n insider, ook omdat de
vragen worden gesteld door vakman Chris Kijne. Ik was van plan dit Engelstalige
interview om te zetten in Nederlands maar vond het toch, na de tweede vraag,
gemakkelijker het Engels weer te geven.
Kijne stelt dat Osman in zijn boek 9/11 niet noemt als
factor in de Arabische revoluties.
Osman antwoordt dat er geen oorzaak-gevolg relatie is. Beide
komen voort uit dezelfde bron, namelijk de frustratie over de Arabische
maatschappij, vooral bij jongeren.
Kijne: Wat deed de westerse reactie op 9/11, namelijk oorlog
voeren, met de Arabische wereld?
Osman: De oorlogen in Afghanistan en Irak hadden weinig
invloed op de Arabische lente. Die was meer een reactie op de sociale,
politieke en economische mislukking van de Arabische samenlevingen gedurende
langere tijd. Interne redenen speelden dus een grotere rol dan de invloed van het
Westen.
K: How do
you explain the fall of the dictators now?
O: The
young generation in Egypte makes up for more than half of the population. Egypt
moved from a liberal state to a nationalist state under Nasser and later on to a restorted form of
capitalism. The youngsters do not depend on the state. The future state will
consist of functioning versions of the past forms. Nothing was wrong with those
ideas, but the execution failed by corruption.
K: Are
there anti western elements in Egypt?
O: The West
was not involved in the Egyptian revolution. The response in 2011 was positive.
Internet
had a good influence.
Osman was
also present on the Tahrirsquare. He says it was fantastic to see a glimpse of
the potential. He still thinks a good end will be possible, despite of the
economic problems and the instable political situation. Osman distinguishes
three different groups in Egyptian politics: the liberals, who oppose religion
and want a secular state, the Islamists who are not dangerous and will not come
to power and the salafists, the radical Islamists. There is not one prevaling
ideology in the Arab world, Osman says. Personal interest starts to clash with
political ideas. The politics inspired by the Islam will therefor decrease in
the coming years. Also because they are not victims anymore. The salafists have
always been there, but they have no view on the state. There is a large group
in Egypt that is very poor and a group that is very rich, but the middle class
who is economically independent will strenghten the democratic process.
K: How
about the army?
O: There is
a difference between the army and the powerstructure since 1952. The
middleclass will change the powerstructure and the army won’t want a
confrontation, but in some ways will protect their position and agree with the
new situation.
K: How will
the poor react, unemployed and with high expectations, about the future?
O: There
are changes already. Economic growth should also lead to economic development.
K: Is there
a darker scenario possible?
O: The
middle class might make the wrong decision by not supporting the liberals but
the conservative Islamists.
K: Does the
Arab spring mean the end of terror?
O: It will weaken
it. It was born in Egypt in a repressive state, but with the democratic changes
it is no longer necessary to use violence.
Tarek Osman gaf gisteravond over de 32ste
Globaliseringslezing in Felix Meritis.
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